Introduction-
Unexpectedly, the BJP coalition lost the 2024 parliamentary majority and could not form government on its own despite being the largest party in the country. During the recent General Election, BJP contested with a very aggressive campaign, but it could manage only 194 of 543 in the Lok Sabha, far from the 272 needed to form a government. Thus, the BJP was politically placed in a very uncomfortable terrain where it had to rule a state with regional political parties which have diametrically opposite political ideologies as the BJP to keep them in check. Congress is joined today from Left to Right parties for different reasons; this formation of coalition politics is new in Indian politics.
To cross this gap and get a majority the BJP aligned with multiple regional parties, the TDP which had 19 seats and the JD(U) which had 12 seats. Altogether, these alliances helped the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to get a majority but at the same time added a new dimension of complicating the operations of the government. These regional parties come to power with different political ideologies and regional agendas hence the challenge of having to govern and at the same time keep the diverse parties together.
This formation of this type of government is therefore evidence that the politics of India is dynamic sup and no party can henceforth control the politics of India. In contrast, regional parties are gaining most importance in deciding the policies at the centre and are taking up issues of regions on a priority basis in the country. But this also implies that the BJP has to overcome numerous problems like policy concessions, conflicts in distribution of resources, and cohesion within the coalition.
This blog post looks at the formation of this coalition government and explore how the relationships between these allied parties are like and the challenges they encounter. Studying these dynamics is essential for having a vision of future developments of Indian politics and possible consequences for the government of the largest democracy in the world.
Brief History of Evolution of Coalition Government in India
The historical evolution of the coalition government indicates the concept of political diversity and the relationship of the centre and regional as well as national level parties in India. During first two decades after the independence which may be considered from 1947 to 1967, the Indian National Congress (INC) dominated the central politics amping up the near absence of coalition politics at that time. The change was realised in the late 1960s when parties of the regions appeared and gained some strength to lead to formulation of the first major coalition government in 1977. After Emergency was declared and imposed, the Janata Party coalition came into power the first time pushing the Congress out of power.
Progression in the essays of coalition politics came in the 1989 National Front government headed by VP Singh and the United Front government in mid 1990s. These coalitions ranged with various regional parties and it underlined how such parties were becoming significant in the governance structure of the country. Still, these coalitions were less stable and experienced high turnover of leadership due to battles within and between the members and different goals.
Stable coalition governments started from the year 1998 onwards in the Indian context. The BJP NDA government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee between 1998 and 2004, as well as the Congress UPA government under Manmohan Singh between 2004 and 2014 both fought internal battles but both conveyed stable rule in India. These coalitions signified a change of trends where major formations of national provincial parties depended on regional partners to form governments.
Since the latest few years especially with the BJP and Narendra Modi as the face, the coalition politics have not remained stagnant. Even in case of BJP which captured the highest numbers in the LokSabha in the 2014 and 2019 general elections, it also had to depend heavily on allies so as to cover a cross-section of the society. It can be realized from the 2024 elections also, and noticed that no party has acquired the majority so they have to cooperate with some other parties to form a government.
But Modi’s cabinet appointments reflect a significant degree of continuity. Key figures such as Amit Shah, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Rajnath Singh, and Nirmala Sitharaman retained their positions, indicating Modi’s intent to maintain stability and continuity in his administration. This continuity aims to reassure both domestic and international observers of the government’s commitment to its ongoing policies and reforms.
Importance of Regional Parties
The regional parties occupy central stage in India’s politics that since the late 1990s have become more significance in the politics of India representing regional interest mainly and have drastically influenced the national policies. It also confirms that people’s representation in the dialogue is diverse and federalist, as well as offering a solution for local problems. However, this also comes with the added complexity in governance mainly because this is associated with coalition governments and thus a lot of negotiating and dealing needed to keep the government stable. Yet their importance cannot be overemphasized as great strides need to be made towards democracy and a political representation that is more democratic in India.
Thus, the BJP’s dependence on decisive pre-election or ruling coalition partners, including the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Janata Dal (United) (JD [U]), is likely to shape its domestic political platform to a significant extent. While both regional political parties which espouse secular politics and some percentage of Muslim and Other Backward Class (OBC) voters which form the basis of their constituencies are different from the BJP’s hardcore Hindutva oriented agenda. Hence, Modi’s action in pushing the Uniform Civil Code, a threat to conventional Muslim customs, will likely be delayed, as is the Agnipath Scheme. Besides, realizing that its call for simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, against which several regional outfits had protested as a violation of the federal structure, cannot be implemented, the BJP might dump it.
Challenges Faced by Modi
The following years pose grim hurdles for Modi as he enters the phase of the coalition government system of India. Ally has called for a reconsideration of the Agnipath scheme which is aimed at reducing expenses in the armed forces but has caused concerns of a job deflation scheme. Furthermore, the charges of expenditure from the core political partners and allies such as the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party would limit the funding policies and programmes that Modi intended to undertake; the charges have to be dealt with carefully to ensure that the allies continue to support the policies and the government.
The elevation of the parliament with the opposition now more assertive after the polls is another challenge that Modi has to face. With Congress party demanding investigation into alleged manipulation of stock markets, allies of BJP are keen to bag the post of parliamentary speaker that holds prior important for enforcing discipline in the party. Internal conflict over the BJP as well as criticism from the RSS makes Modi’s challenges more difficult in the coming years; policy making within the party and further discord may be issues in India.
Impact on Economic and Foreign Policy
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her first press briefing following the election, emphasized the continuation of reforms to ensure the macroeconomic stability and growth necessary for the BJP’s ‘Viksit Bharat Sankalp’ action plan. This plan aims to transform India into a developed country by 2047, with significant investments in infrastructure projects such as roads, airports, ports, and solar power. Additionally, the government aims to improve India’s ranking on ease-of-doing-business indices and strengthen the domestic manufacturing base, targeting to double India’s share of global manufacturing from 5% in 2030 to 10% by 2047. However, Modi’s aggressive land- and labour-reform agendas could face challenges due to coalition politics, with regional parties likely seeking special incentives for their provinces.
India’s foreign policy priorities are anticipated to remain stable, with a continued commitment to the ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’ and strategic autonomy. The presence of seven regional heads of government at Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, excluding those of Pakistan and China, highlighted this commitment. Limited interest and influence from coalition partners on foreign policy are expected, allowing New Delhi to maintain its multi-alignment policies, with the US as its principal strategic partner. Security concerns regarding China and Pakistan will continue to dominate, with a focus on stability along the India-China border and addressing terrorism emanating from Pakistan.
Conclusion
As parliamentary elections of 2024 have marked a new chapter in the journey of BJP as it opened the gates for the coalitions which is very much dynamic type of democracy in India. Coalition partners are required due to political pluralism and the rise of regional parties as a political force. However, together with the problematic factors, like the different political interests’ management and the problems of policy governance continuity, the coalition government has opportunities to enhance the governance inclusiveness and policy-responsive to the regional interests.
From now on, as the BJP will have to face these problems, it will need to strengthen the cooperation with its partners. This will entail giving up on some of the policy objectives, avoid rocking the boat in the coalition partners as well as making sure that the government is strong, cohesive, and on a single mission. Moreover, Modi’s government will need to address domestic needs and wants of coalition partners as well as the economic and foreign policy objectives he has laid out.
As such through advocating for dialogue and negotiation the coalition can result in better resilient and representative governance. Thus, the prospects of constructing and maintaining a proper coalition could be an essential precondition for any political party in the context of continually developing Indian politics.
This blog is authored by Samiksha, student of Hidayatullah National Law University, Raipur.
